Allais Paradox
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The Allais paradox is a choice problem designed by to show an inconsistency of actual observed choices with the predictions of
expected utility The expected utility hypothesis is a popular concept in economics that serves as a reference guide for decisions when the payoff is uncertain. The theory recommends which option rational individuals should choose in a complex situation, based on the ...
theory.


Statement of the problem

The Allais paradox arises when comparing participants' choices in two different experiments, each of which consists of a choice between two gambles, A and B. The payoffs for each gamble in each experiment are as follows: Several studies involving hypothetical and small monetary payoffs, and recently involving health outcomes, have supported the assertion that when presented with a choice between 1A and 1B, most people would choose 1A. Likewise, when presented with a choice between 2A and 2B, most people would choose 2B. Allais further asserted that it was reasonable to choose 1A alone or 2B alone. However, that the same person (who chose 1A alone or 2B alone) would choose both 1A and 2B together is inconsistent with
expected utility theory The expected utility hypothesis is a popular concept in economics that serves as a reference guide for decisions when the payoff is uncertain. The theory recommends which option rational individuals should choose in a complex situation, based on the ...
. According to expected utility theory, the person should choose either 1A and 2A or 1B and 2B. The inconsistency stems from the fact that in expected utility theory, equal outcomes (e.g. $1 million for all gambles) added to each of the two choices should have no effect on the relative desirability of one gamble over the other; equal outcomes should "cancel out". In each experiment the two gambles give the same outcome 89% of the time (starting from the top row and moving down, both 1A and 1B give an outcome of $1 million with 89% probability, and both 2A and 2B give an outcome of nothing with 89% probability). If this 89% ‘common consequence’ is disregarded, then in each experiment the choice between gambles will be the same – 11% chance of $1 million versus 10% chance of $5 million. After re-writing the payoffs, and disregarding the 89% chance of winning — equalising the outcome — then 1B is left offering a 1% chance of winning nothing and a 10% chance of winning $5 million, while 2B is also left offering a 1% chance of winning nothing and a 10% chance of winning $5 million. Hence, choice 1B and 2B can be seen as the same choice. In the same manner, 1A and 2A can also be seen as the same choice, i.e.: Allais presented his paradox as a
counterexample A counterexample is any exception to a generalization. In logic a counterexample disproves the generalization, and does so rigorously in the fields of mathematics and philosophy. For example, the fact that "John Smith is not a lazy student" is a ...
to the independence axiom. Independence means that if an agent is indifferent between simple lotteries L_1 and L_2, the agent is also indifferent between L_1 mixed with an arbitrary simple lottery L_3 with probability p and L_2 mixed with L_3 with the same probability p. Violating this principle is known as the "common consequence" problem (or "common consequence" effect). The idea of the common consequence problem is that as the prize offered by L_3 increases, L_1 and L_2 become consolation prizes, and the agent will modify preferences between the two lotteries so as to minimize risk and disappointment in case they do not win the higher prize offered by L_3. Difficulties such as this gave rise to a number of alternatives to, and
generalizations A generalization is a form of abstraction whereby common properties of specific instances are formulated as general concepts or claims. Generalizations posit the existence of a domain or set of elements, as well as one or more common characteri ...
of, the theory, notably including
prospect theory Prospect theory is a theory of behavioral economics and behavioral finance that was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. The theory was cited in the decision to award Kahneman the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. Based ...
, developed by
Daniel Kahneman Daniel Kahneman (; he, דניאל כהנמן; born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was award ...
and
Amos Tversky Amos Nathan Tversky ( he, עמוס טברסקי; March 16, 1937 – June 2, 1996) was an Israeli cognitive and mathematical psychologist and a key figure in the discovery of systematic human cognitive bias and handling of risk. Much of his ...
, weighted utility (Chew),
rank-dependent expected utility The rank-dependent expected utility model (originally called anticipated utility) is a generalized expected utility model of choice under uncertainty, designed to explain the behaviour observed in the Allais paradox, as well as for the observation ...
by
John Quiggin John Quiggin (born 29 March 1956) is an Australian economist, a professor at the University of Queensland. He was formerly an Australian Research Council Laureate Fellow and Federation Fellow and a member of the board of the Climate Change Aut ...
, and regret theory. The point of these models was to allow a wider range of behavior than was consistent with expected utility theory. Michael Birnbaum performed experimental dissections of the paradox and showed that the results violated the theories of Quiggin, Kahneman, Tversky, and others, but could be explained by his configural weight theory that violates the property of coalescing. The main point Allais wished to make is that the independence axiom of expected utility theory may not be a valid axiom. The independence axiom states that two identical outcomes within a gamble should be treated as irrelevant to the analysis of the gamble as a whole. However, this overlooks the notion of complementarities, the fact your choice in one part of a gamble may depend on the possible outcome in the other part of the gamble. In the above choice, 1B, there is a 1% chance of getting nothing. However, this 1% chance of getting nothing also carries with it a great sense of disappointment if you were to pick that gamble and lose, knowing you could have won with 100% certainty if you had chosen 1A. This feeling of disappointment, however, is contingent on the outcome in the other portion of the gamble (i.e. the feeling of certainty). Hence, Allais argues that it is not possible to evaluate portions of gambles or choices independently of the other choices presented, as the independence axiom requires, and thus is a poor judge of our rational action (1B cannot be valued independently of 1A as the independence or sure thing principle requires of us). We don't act irrationally when choosing 1A and 2B; rather expected utility theory is not robust enough to capture such "
bounded rationality Bounded rationality is the idea that rationality is limited when individuals make decisions, and under these limitations, rational individuals will select a decision that is satisfactory rather than optimal. Limitations include the difficulty of ...
" choices that in this case arise because of complementarities.


Intuition behind the Allais paradox


Zero effect vs certainty effect

The most common explanation of the Allais paradox is that individuals prefer certainty over a risky outcome even if this defies the expected utility axiom. The ''certainty effect'' was popularised by
Kahneman Daniel Kahneman (; he, דניאל כהנמן; born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was award ...
and Tversky (1979), and further discussed in Wakker (2010). The ''certainty effect'' highlights the appeal of a zero-variance lottery. Recent studies have indicated an alternate explanation to the ''certainty effect'' called the ''zero effect''. The ''zero effect'' is a slight adjustment to the ''certainty effect'' that states individuals will appeal to the lottery that doesn’t have the possibility of winning nothing (aversion to zero). During prior Allais style tasks that involve two experiments with four lotteries, the only lottery without a possible outcome of zero was the zero-variance lottery, making it impossible to differentiate the impact these effects have on decision making. Running two additional lotteries allowed the two effects to be distinguished and hence, their statistical significance to be tested. From the two-stage experiment, if an individual selected lottery A over B, then selected lottery 2B over 2A, they conform to the paradox and violate the expected utility axiom. The third experiment choices of participants who had already violated the expected utility theory(in the first two experiments) highlighted the underlying effect causing the Allais Paradox. Participants who chose 3B over 3A provided evidence of the ''certainty effect'', while those who chose 3A over 3B showed evidence of the ''zero effect''. Participants who chose (1A,2B,3B) only deviated from the rational choice when presented with a zero-variance lottery. Participants who chose (1A,2B,3A) deviated from the rational lottery choice to avoid the risk of winning nothing (aversion to zero). Findings of the six-lottery experiment indicated the ''zero effect'' was statistically significant with a p-value < 0.01. The ''certainty effect'' was found to be statistically insignificant and not the intuitive explanation individuals deviating from the expected utility theory.


Mathematical proof of inconsistency

Using the values above and a utility function ''U''(''W''), where ''W'' is wealth, we can demonstrate exactly how the paradox manifests. Because the typical individual prefers 1A to 1B and 2B to 2A, we can conclude that the expected utilities of the preferred is greater than the expected utilities of the second choices, or,


Experiment 1

: 1U(\$1\text) > 0.89U(\$1\text) + 0.01U(\$0\text) + 0.1U(\$5\text)


Experiment 2

: 0.89U(\$0\text) + 0.11U(\$1\text) < 0.9U(\$0\text) + 0.1U(\$5\text) We can rewrite the latter equation (Experiment 2) as : 0.11U(\$1\text) < 0.01U(\$0\text) + 0.1U(\$5\text) : 1U(\$1\text) - 0.89U(\$1\text) < 0.01U(\$0\text) + 0.1U(\$5\text) : 1U(\$1\text) < 0.89U(\$1\text) + 0.01U(\$0\text) + 0.1U(\$5\text), which contradicts the first bet (Experiment 1), which shows the player prefers the sure thing over the gamble.


See also

*
Ellsberg paradox In decision theory, the Ellsberg paradox (or Ellsberg's paradox) is a paradox in which people's decisions are inconsistent with subjective expected utility theory. Daniel Ellsberg popularized the paradox in his 1961 paper, “Risk, Ambiguity, and ...
*
Priority heuristic The priority heuristic is a simple, lexicographic decision strategy that correctly predicts classic violations of expected utility theory such as the Allais paradox, the four-fold pattern, the certainty effect, the possibility effect, or intransit ...
*
St. Petersburg paradox The St. Petersburg paradox or St. Petersburg lottery is a paradox involving the game of flipping a coin where the expected payoff of the theoretical lottery game approaches infinity but nevertheless seems to be worth only a very small amount to t ...


References


Further reading

* * * * * * *
review
* Lewis, Michael. (2017). '' The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds''. New York: Norton. {{Economic paradoxes Behavioral economics Behavioral finance Decision-making paradoxes Paradoxes in utility theory fr:Maurice Allais#Le paradoxe d'Allais